What are the best commodities to watch in June 2026?
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‘Commodities’ and ‘safe-haven’ have been two of the biggest buzzwords of the year to date in the economic sphere. Before diving straight into the deep end, it is necessary to evaluate the increased interest in commodities and there is more to it than just crude oil. Commodity prices can have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market as certain currencies have a historical correlation with specific commodities. Further analysis of the currency economic climate will reveal the handful of commodities that you should be following closely and why.
What has caused the renewed interest in commodities?
The currency state of the broader economic environment is unstable with a long list of macroeconomic factors dominating global news in recent months. In times of uncertainty there tends to be a shift to hard asset allocation. This is where investors move away from stocks, bonds and digital assets to tangible goods such as hard commodities. Geopolitical instability, supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures and energy transition are some of the reasons causing the current shift.
Geopolitical instability
The tension in the Middle East, especially the Strait of Hormuz and Iran conflict, have caused unprecedented disruption to global supply chains. The disruption of key shipping routes has decreased the supply of oil, gas and agricultural products which has triggered sharp spikes in prices. The logistical bottlenecks have tightened supplies causing demand to greatly exceed supply which has inevitably driven up prices.
Inflationary pressures
These geopolitical events are often the catalyst for a surge in commodity prices. The RBA Index of Commodity Prices rose 18.1% year-on-year in May and if the conflict persists prices are likely to continue to soar. Sharp rises in commodity prices increase the cost of transportation and logistics which is subsequently passed onto consumers. This cycle acts as fuel for inflation which then forces the hand of the central banks to tighten monetary policy – raise interest rates and reduce household purchasing power.
Energy transition
An increasing dependence on technology and the accelerating AI adoption have caused a rise in demand for energy, data centres, and special-purpose hardware. These data centres have created a concentrated demand for electricity and industrial metals.
Gold as a safe-haven
In case you were not already aware, gold is considered as the premier safe-haven asset during economic crises. As it is both rare and indestructible, gold has held its place as a store of value for thousands of years. It is independent of any government or bank and unlike paper money cannot be printed. Gold is used to hedge against inflation as it has regularly outperformed stocks and currencies during periods of high inflation and intense political uncertainty.
These conditions are prevalent in the current economic environment which has seen the price of gold rise from around US$3,300 per ounce in May 2025 to more than US$4,700 per ounce 12 months on. That represents an increase of more than 40% and it is worth noting that it topped out at almost US$5,600 per ounce. In the current market conditions, gold currently has a strong floor price as many central banks across the world are investing very heavily in it. With respect to forex trading, gold has a close relationship with US dollar (USD) pairs and often moves inversely with the USD.
The influence of crude oil
Presently, crude oil is the most influential commodity market. It serves as the primary energy source for industrial production and transportation making up for almost a third of global energy supply. As a result, it is also the world's most traded commodity with 100+ million barrels being traded daily. One of the most notable characteristics of oil is its geopolitical sensitivity. Conflicts in key producing areas, such as the Middle East, can cause supply chain disruptions which in turn triggers major price shocks.
Oil is primarily traded in US dollars, with a sharp rise in oil prices often strengthening the USD. Should the current market dynamics continue, the currencies of Canada (Canadian dollar – CAD), Norway (Norwegian Krone – NOK) and Australia (Australian dollar – AUD) are worth monitoring as they rely heavily on the exporting of natural resources. Currency pairs that may attract significant trading volume include USD/CAD, USD/NOK, AUD/CAD and CAD/JPY.
Don’t forget about silver
Gold may be the ‘big brother’ of precious metals but silver has significantly outperformed it in the last 12 months. Its price has risen more than 140% year-on-year (from May 2025 to May 2026), trading from around US$33 to more than US$80 per ounce. One of the driving forces behind this is green energy demand. Silver is one of the critical components in solar panels and is being utilised as the primary electrical conductor. Interestingly, new techniques are being used to recycle silver components in solar panels rather than to scrap them.
Demand has consistently exceeded the supply of silver in recent years and it is heading towards a supply deficit for a sixth consecutive year. The continual push for renewable energy and increase in electric vehicle manufacturing is further good news for silver as a commodity. The gap between gold and silver also continues to narrow which reflects increased investor demand providing another reason why silver should not be forgotten.
Copper's hidden impact on global markets
Due to its resistance to corrosion, malleability and exceptional conductivity, copper is a fundamental industrial material. It is often referred to as ‘Dr. Copper’ in financial markets as it serves as a real-time indicator of global economic health. Its price and demand are considered reliable as it is critical to construction, infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy.
With respect to construction, copper is used for electrical wiring, plumbing and HVAC systems such as air conditioning and refrigeration. Copper is critical to infrastructure as it is heavily used in power grids, distribution lines and transformers. The shift towards renewables is fantastic news for the copper industry as it is a critical commodity for a net-zero future. Its use in wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles, data centres and technological goods mean copper is the backbone of decarbonisation.
Rising copper prices strengthen commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD and CAD while adversely affecting the USD. This makes copper pricing a leading indicator for trading multiple major currency pairs including AUD/USD and USD/CAD.
Natural Gas: A Seasonal driver of commodity markets
Commodity prices are fundamentally driven by changes in supply and demand. With respect to natural gas, seasonal weather causes significant price fluctuations. It is crucial to remember that we use the seasons in the northern hemisphere as 90% of the world’s population live above the equator. The highest natural gas prices peak in winter due to heating needs and spike again in summer on the back of cooling demands. Prices are typically lower in the shoulder seasons (spring and autumn).
As is the case with most commodities, the Canadian dollar often strengthens when natural gas prices go up but the same applies to leading exporters of gas – namely the United States, Australia and Qatar. It could be useful to monitor currency pair combinations that feature the USD, CAD and AUD.
Trade commodity CFDs with FP Markets
Geopolitical uncertainty, energy transition, inflationary pressures and changes to monetary policy are prominent aspects of the current economic climate. This has led to increased levels of volatility which has subsequently created trading opportunities based on commodities such as metals and energy related products.
An effective way to trade forex based on commodity prices is to focus on a select number of commodities with emphasis placed on understanding their use and role in the global economy. Knowledge on what causes their prices to move and how they impact specific currency pairs is the next step in identifying trading opportunities. Extensive research should be accompanied by a trading strategy that focuses on trends, news or correlation.
One way traders gain exposure to commodity price movements is through Contracts for Difference (CFDs). Commodity CFDs allow traders to speculate on rising and falling prices without owning the underlying asset, providing access to markets such as gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas.
The role of education in trading forex should not be underestimated. It serves as the foundation for managing risk, developing trading strategies and attaining long-term success. FP Markets offers a wide range of educational material including trading courses, live webinars, eBooks and tutorials.
Once you have developed your market knowledge and trading approach, opening an FP Markets account allows you to access a broad range of commodity CFDs and apply your strategies in live market conditions.
